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 Central bank, concerned about increasing interest rates on loans to citizens, is going in earnest from next year to take up the banks actively handing out high-risk consumer credits. But the state care nothing good borrowers will bring.
Elena Kovaleva
Last week, the Central Bank Chairman Sergei Ignatiev has received a letter from the heads of the five banks that are leaders in the segment of consumer - is HCF-Bank, OTP Bank, TCS Bank, "Russian Standard" and "Renaissance Credit". Bankers are requested not excessively restrict the credit market for the citizens. "By reducing the activity of retail banking and maintaining high consumer demand citizens will be forced to turn to alternative sources of credit (microfinance institutions, credit cooperatives, pawnshops) to offer these services at a higher rate," - quoted paper "Kommersant".
The fact that the Bank of Russia decided to seriously take up the growing market of consumer. Indeed, rates, for example, express cash loans and loans to retail outlets in selected banks today reach 50-70% per annum. But citizens and borrow at such rates. For the nine months, the banks have issued loans to the public more than in all of last year (1.6 trillion rubles. Versus 1.4 trillion in 2011). According to the Bank of Russia, the portfolio of unsecured loans is growing at over 60% per year.
Cool the ardor of the banks active in the consumer credit market, the regulator decided in several ways. In particular, on March 1, will be tightened requirements for capital adequacy and its relation to the assets, weighted by risk. The relevant draft new regulation on bank regulations have already been published on the website of the Central Bank. For unsecured loans from March factor reflecting this risk will increase. Increased touch ruble loans at the rate of 25% per annum and 20% of foreign exchange. Central Bank proposes to introduce risk ratio of 1.1 (the rate of 25-30% in rubles) to 2.5 on loans with an effective rate of 60% in rubles and 30% in foreign currency. For currency loans 20-25% ratio is 1.7, a 25-30% - 2.
In addition, on February 1 is expected to double the reserves that banks create for unsecured loans individuals. For example, for loans without delay instead of 1% of the portfolio will need to allocate 2% for loans overdue by 30 days rate will increase from 3% to 6%. This also hit the bank's capital, as will reduce their profits. Draft amendments to the position 254-P, the central bank also posted on its website. According to the management of the Central Bank, as a result of new capital requirements will be reduced by some of the banks billions of rubles.
The Finance Ministry is believed that the Central Bank operates in the right direction and the proposed measures to curb the growth of consumer is likely to be introduced in this form, because the regulator is resolute. According to Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseyev, in the current economic situation, the bank has the wrong motivation. Almost all of the available funds are directed not to the crediting of the real sector of the economy, and the consumer crediting. Yes, and raise deposit rates in order to use the contributions for a pretty risky unsecured lending. In particular, according to Alexei Moiseyev, yield loan portfolios from banks active in the market of consumer loans, exceeds 50%, and universal banks are content with only 10-12%. In this regard, the task of the regulator is to redress the imbalance between the banks working with the real sector of the economy, and galloping consumer credit market. In addition, according to Alexei Moiseyev, control the pace of consumer will benefit and inflation.
Most of these innovations affected banks, monolines, to make a living solely lending (cash loans, credit cards, POS-loans). According to the Vice Chairman of the Board, "The Messenger" Eugene Davidovich, 100% of all new retail loan portfolio will fall under the new rules. How could shrink the bank's capital, it is assumed refused, noting that the bank will probably be forced to reduce the amount of new loans to 1.3-1.5 times. Thus, both the bank's earnings from the new issuance will drop by 1.5 times, which, however, the first time will be offset's low level of new loans in the total portfolio.
Under the new requirements fall even products of state banks, has recently entered the market of consumer. Bank "Summer" (VTB) and Cetelem (owned Sberbank and "BNP Paribas") promised to offer products with interest rates below the market. But so far, according to their website, the bank "Summer" rate of return to 49.9% per annum, and at Cetelem - right up to 96.4%.
Universal banks tightening rules will affect less, but they do not bypass. "We now calculate how much will be reflected in our new requirements of the Central Bank. This will be significant changes to the retail business, it's impact on our portfolio and our volume of loans. Though it is obvious that, for us, it will be less painful than for the monolines, as more 30% of the operating income of retail business of Alfa Bank accounts for non-lending activities, "- says CEO of Alfa Bank Alexey Marey.
Most bankers surveyed have high hopes that the Central Bank under pressure from the banking lobby still soften its position. "We believe that banks are lending to people under 30-40%, much better from a social point of view, the microfinance institutions, or" gray "dealers, whose rates are hundreds of percent per annum. Hope that CB will take this aspect into account when will receive the final version of the changes, "- said the vice president of marketing for TCS Bank Oleg Anisimov.
However, so far the only possible relief, which the central bank is considering regarding the maintenance of the existing reserve ratio against unsecured loans payroll clients. This was announced by the media director of banking regulation CB Basil Pozdyshev. However, the volume of salary projects in banks are not comparable with the volume of the monolines universal banks.
According to the same predpravleniya HCF-Bank Ivan Svitek, the central bank, and so nothing to worry about. Growth rate of the loan portfolio of natural persons in the following year, and without his efforts will slow down and will not exceed 20-25%. "The market for consumer credit is slowing. This is due to the natural mechanisms of market self-regulation. Actively lending led to a reduction of capital adequacy. According to the Bank of Russia, on October 1 it was 13.3%, while in early 2011 was 18, 1%. Moreover, the banking system for a year in a state of lack of liquidity and, therefore, expensive funding. Deposit rates continue to rise. Given the natural market trend to a reduction in consumer credit control measures may have an excessive pressure on the capital adequacy of retail banks. Height loan portfolio of individuals, in this case up to 2013 may be only 5%, "- said Ivan Svitek.
Now bankers think about how to do business in the new market of consumer. "Banks may waive part of low-income credit products and switch to more lucrative that, despite the increased risk weights will generate capital by increasing the interest margin" - suggests Ivan Svitek. "We are considering various scenarios in the budget planning. On the one hand, it can lend at a higher rate, but then increase the risks and increase reserve ratio. On the other hand, if you leave the rates at the same level or even reduce them, reduced profitability. How consequence, it is necessary to look for ways to reduce operating costs to ensure profitability of the former. So for us, the most likely scenario - is lending on the same terms, but in smaller amounts, reduce operating costs and seek opportunities to capitalize the bank, "- says Eugene Davidovich.
Another trend that can trigger actions of the Central Bank, according to the head unit "Retail Business" Alfa Bank Alexey Korovin, may be to increase the difference in the conditions that banks offer customers with good and bad credit history. "Customer with not so good credit history to get the more difficult and more expensive. Banks may increase the interest rates on credit such customers to compensate for their accruals. And for clients with a good story, however, conditions will be better for them to be completely mad competition ", - says Alexey Korovin.
"In any case, whatever option is elected for themselves banks, the Central Bank of the new rules will reduce the attractiveness of the high-risk consumer lending for banks, lower capital ratios and reduce interest margins on consumer lending," - said Alexey Marey.
However, the lowering of credit activity they need for expensive resources, the population also begin to decline. So deposit rates may go down. Thus, the Bank of Russia, on the one hand, eliminates overheating in the market of consumer, on the other - reduces rates on deposits.
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