Sberbank beat analysts

On Wednesday, December 5, the markets saw Savings accounts for the nine months.

After that, the bank's shares have started to go up. Curiously, they have increased in price more than the MICEX index: 2.34% vs. 1.7%. It is strange that they went up even more.

 Agency "Prime" noted that Sberbank of Russia earned in January-September 2012 262.8 billion rubles of net profit under IFRS versus the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by "Prime" in 258.8 billion rubles, "please market participants high interest margins and moderate allocation to reserves. "

 Reporting Sberbank really good, so analysts are surprised that no action grew even stronger. Growth is low, and further dynamics showed no interest in the securities of the explosive, which continues to fluctuations in the 93-94 rubles per ordinary share. Interestingly, the target price for the ordinary shares of Sberbank, most analysts climbs over $ 100 per share, and some, for example - a "Investkafe", she even above 110 rubles per share.

 Lethargy investors is all the more strange that Sberbank showed higher net profit - 262.8 billion rubles, a 2.7% increase over the same period last year - than expected, analysts at Alfa Bank, "Brokerkreditservisa", "VTB Capital "Nomos-Bank, UBS and many other financial institutions, which evaluated the rate in 255-259 billion. From this huge profit for the third quarter of Sberbank earned 87.5 billion rubles.

 Surprised analysts and the Savings Bank's net interest margin - they predicted it at the rate of 5.9-6.0%, and it came to 6.2%. True, the deputy chairman of Sberbank Anton Karamzin cooled enthusiasm some analysts, telling them that in the next year, at least in the first two quarters, the bank does not expect the same net interest margin, the most that could be expected - the same 6%. By the way, in the second quarter of this year the index was exactly.

 With hindsight, analysts, of course, can be explained this growth in net interest margin: Sberbank (and behind him and other banks) in anticipation of future financial shocks, which are not only lazy says, began to raise rates - and deposit, and, in this case especially important credit. But if the cost of funding (meaning deposits and natural persons and legal) for him to remain - despite the increase in deposit rates - at the same level, about 5.1%, as it was in the second quarter, the average yield on loans increased

 from 10.7% in the second quarter to 11% in the third, and if taken in isolation, the average yield of retail loans in the third quarter was 14.7% (+0.3 percentage points to the second quarter), and corporate - 9.7 % (+0.2 percentage points to the second quarter).

 And I must say that the most profitable kind of business, namely retail consumer loans, Savings in the third quarter increased its highest growth rate: its portfolio increased by 15.4% (from the beginning of year - by 48.9%!) And reached 2.68 trillion. Corporate portfolio, we observe not grow as fast, but also impressive: 9.9% (since the beginning of the year - 18.6%) and reached 7.8 trillion rubles. Total loan portfolio Savings (net of reserves) increased from the beginning of the year by 28.5% and now amounts to 9.92 trillion rubles. It should be further noted that all indicators Savings certain influence two of its purchases abroad, namely Turkish Denizbank and the Austrian-Eastern Volksbank International, now called Sberbank Europe. For example, retail sales excluding performance of the two banks has increased since the beginning of the year by 35.4%, which is still considered excellent.

 And the greatest growth was the most profitable part of the most profitable type of business - namely, unsecured consumer loans. In the third quarter, they rose by 17.3%, the total amounted to 1.51 trillion rubles, of course, increased their share in the total portfolio of consumer loans - up to 56%, and at the beginning of the year was 52%.

 Deposits grow far so fast: individuals brought to Sberbank by only 13.6% more money now in the bank is 6.5 trillion rubles, and corporate investors gained 36.8%, to $ 3 trillion. Sberbank and refuses funding from foreign markets - borrowing program for the current year will be $ 6 billion, the next - roughly the same number as promised Anton Karamzin.

 Savings risky policy, perhaps - one of the reasons that investors are not so heavily invested in his papers. According to the bank, arrears on consumer loans (for a day or more) in the third quarter increased by 34.8% (for the period) and was about 91 billion rubles as overdue debt in the structure of unsecured loans taken for 6%, and in the second quarter was 5.2% - a very sharp rise. in the second to 6% in the third quarter.

 True, analysts soothe: Savings for unsecured loans - it completely new, one might say, a historic turning point in corporate psychology, so that the sharp increase can be attributed to some inexperience. So far, and this is important, early overdue no effect on nasal hopelessly (over 90 days) of arrears, the figure is stable and is approximately 2.5%.

 Followed by analysts and investors rushed to comfort Anton Karamzin, assured that next year this rapid credit growth will not. Deputy chairman of Sberbank promised that growth would be 25%, with proportionally across all categories of loans. So, of course, restrictions will affect and unsecured loans, and if they will not give to the first comer, can be expected to improve the quality of borrowers, and to reduce the early arrears, analysts say.

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