Finance Ministry forecasts a doubling of bank assets in 2020

Assets of banks in 2020 will double and reach 104 trillion rubles., And the share of insurance premiums will rise to 5% of GDP. This forecast is contained in the draft program "Development of financial and insurance markets, the creation of an international financial center," published Friday on the website of Finance.

 According to the Central Bank at the beginning of December last year, the total assets of Russian banks amounted to 47.6 trillion rubles. To achieve predictive values, the growth rate of credit sector should be at 10-15% a year. At the end of 2013 the assets of banks, according to Finance Ministry estimates, will rise to 57 trillion rubles.

 "This growth is possible if the GDP growth will be normal," - said predpravleniya bank "Uralsib" Ilkka Salonen. According predpravleniya VTB24 Mikhail Zadornov, an increase in assets of the banking sector will be achieved primarily by means of the population, as well as further capitalization of Russian banks and to raise funds in the international financial markets. The main drivers of market growth will be lending to individuals and entrepreneurs, said a top manager.

 According to the first vice-president of Gazprombank Ekaterina Trofimova, it all depends on whether banks will be able to provide capital growth and maintain at least the current level of profitability. "It is questionable, given the still continuing instability in the markets and the high level of competition, as well as tighter regulation," - she said.

 Rather optimistic forecast of Finance and for the development of the insurance market: by 2020, the proportion of premiums to GDP is expected to grow from 1.5 to 5%. It is worth noting that the strategy prepared by the Russian Union of Insurers, are somewhat different goal - to 2% of GDP by 2020, which corresponds to the volume of premiums of 2.7 trillion rubles.

 Now, according to experts, the share of insurance in GDP - 1.2-1.3%. Deputy Chairman of the Board of SOGAZ Galushin Nicholas believes that if they introduced tax incentives for life insurance and the business will actively develop, forecasts of officials can come true.

 The head of the UK "Ingosstrakh" Alexander Grigoriev believes Treasury forecasts. "Now the government structures perceive insurance as a sector of the economy - he says. - The Ministry of Finance document is not registered, due to which these indicators will be achieved. " "Without an understanding of quantitative and qualitative indicators for this date - 2020 - and the factors in the development of the economy to make a prediction is not possible" - I agree with him CEO of IC "Consent" Elnur Suleymanov.

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